Pokemon Investing
The artwork on some of these Sword and Shield era cards is absolutely astounding. I think these cards may eventually have a more lasting impact on Pokémon TCG as a whole than base set did. I know that may be a controversial opinion but at this point I feel confident writing this. The next generation of collectors isn’t going to have nostalgia for base set Charizard or any other sought after vintage cards, especially considering how many times they’ve been reprinted. I also believe these multiple reprints contribute to what I like to call “base set burnout”. People are tired of seeing it, even people like me that grew up with it. And let’s be honest people, nostalgia is the main driving force holding the value of those cards afloat.
I think the new Pokémon 151 set is going in a great direction in terms of taking the original Pokémon and redesigning them with a modern approach, unlike sets such as Celebrations and XY Evolutions, which just cheapen the value of the original prints. And it shows! People are going crazy for this set and I highly doubt the hype would be as strong if they just reprinted the same old artwork over again. I come from playing and collecting Magic the Gathering cards, and if there is one big takeaway from that game that can translate here, it’s that multiple reprints of the same cards are BAD for the IP, especially for collectors. So while I believe Pokémon 151 is a great set, these types of nostalgia driven sets should be printed in moderation. I’m hoping we can see an anniversary set with new artwork featuring the Pokémon from Gen 2-5, I think that would appeal to a lot of people that feel as if some of their favorite childhood Pokémon are underrepresented.
Anyway, the point I’m trying to make beyond this is that if you’re in this from a monetary perspective as well as a collectible one, it doesn’t take a genius to identify that the potential growth of older sets and cards is minuscule in comparison to what these modern sets offer (more specifically Japanese modern). The potential returns on vintage cards from this point forward I believe will be 5-10% year after year AT MOST. The original hype that brought in the massive 1000%+ gains in vintage is long gone, and I highly doubt it will ever come back considering how artificial it really was. It was basically a rally sparked by a bunch of nostalgia driven influencers who managed to buy in for pennies compared to what prices are now, that’s not organic growth. The prices we see on certain modern cards may be somewhat of a bubble, but I also believe that the growth is significantly more organic and stems from tried and true supply and demand. Modern Japanese chase cards are significantly more scarce than their vintage counterparts, people seem to forget pull rates on vintage were much better than today. I also believe that the international demand for Japanese cards is and will continue to be a driving force for their increased growth whereas poor printing practices and ludicrous pull rates have put English Pokémon in a bad state.
Japanese modern Pokémon may carry some risk, especially if purchasing big ticket items, but the ROI can be astronomical if thoughtfully timed and calculated. At the end of the day SEALED PRODUCT IS KING. No matter what “sector” you invest in, over time when supply for older, out of print sets dwindles, the price is almost certain to increase. Even if your only path to liquidation is through eBay, you can easily cover the cost of the 13% fee with the potentially massive margins that have presented themselves again and again (i.e. Eevee Heroes, VMax Climax, and many sets from the Sun & Moon era, just to name a few).
At the end of the day, if you aren’t willing to take on some risk as an investor in today’s world, you’re probably not going to get very far with your investment. The types of safe returns available now can barely outpace inflation, let alone provide you with a profit that you’d want to write home about. Speaking of homes, if you’re looking to buy one in a good neighborhood, $50k a year and a Roth IRA ain’t gonna get you there, sorry to say. So whether it’s Pokémon or something else, a risk averse mindset is not going to cut it for most people in todays marketplace. But of course all of this is my opinion, and none of this should be taken as financial or investment advice. So do your research, form your own opinions, and then come into my comment section so we can argue lol. At the end of the day, this Umbreon VMAX Alt Art Hyper Rare is a beautiful card, with or without its ever increasing price tag.